Outer space becomes multipolar
Envoi de MS le 15 Octobre 2003 17:58:24:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EJ01Ad03.html
Outer space becomes multipolar
By Jamie Miyazaki
The scheduled October 30 signing by China and the European Union to open the
way for China to take a substantial financial role in Europe's nearly US
billion Galileo navigation-satellite project could be interpreted as a
direct
shot across the bow of the United States as the world's sole, undisputed
military and economic superpower in outer space. Nor is it going to be the
last.
The French, the Chinese and the Russians are all pushing for the emergence
of a
multipolar world to counter the United States' supremacy as a so-called
hyperpower. The EU, spurred primarily by French efforts, for decades has
actively challenged US dominance in the strategically important aerospace
industry through Airbus Industrie and the Ariane space-rocket program. The
EU's
next serious challenge to US supremacy looks set to be the lucrative
navigation-satellite industry currently monopolized by the United
States-based
Global Positioning System (GPS). But in order to attain this, the EU has had
to
rely on help from Beijing.
The joint EU-China agreement, scheduled to be signed at the summit between
China and the European Union, provides for cooperation on satellite
navigation
over a wide range of scientific and technological sectors, industrial
manufacturing, service and market development and other issues. What it
really
does, however, is go into deep Chinese pockets for substantial financial
help
through a stakeholding in the project.
If all goes as scheduled, Galileo would loft a constellation of 30
stationary
satellites 23,000 kilometers into the sky as a counterweight to GPS, the
current state of play in satellite location technology. Planned to be
operational by 2008 at a cost of 3.3 billion euros (.85 billion), Galileo
is
designed to counter the effective US monopoly on navigation satellite
technology with improved accuracy that, as a civilian system, won't be
subject
to government blocking.
Originally developed as a military application to pinpoint and target
objects
from space, GPS has become one of the world's true whiz-bang technologies.
The
satellite system allows both military and commercial surveying to pinpoint
the
location of vehicles, aircraft, ships or even herds of cattle anywhere on
Earth.
Since its inception the US system has also been expanded to cover civilian
applications, something US officials have repeatedly pointed out in their
questioning why Galileo has to be established at all.
However, its civilian applications are deliberately low-precision to
maintain
the US military advantage in pinpointing objects. To counter one of the
arguments of the EU's rival Galileo system, the US government recently
fine-tuned the accuracy of its civilian-use system, although in the past the
United States has selectively blocked access when it has felt national
security
was in danger of being compromised, as it did during the campaign in
Afghanistan.
The United States has stressed space systems as key "strategic enablers" for
conducting command, control and intelligence functions in military
operations,
all part of the Pentagon's much-touted Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA).
The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is in the process of drafting a
comprehensive strategy to ensure US dominance of space. As General Lance
Lord
of the US Air Force Space Command put it in April, "The pursuit of
asymmetric
advantage is not new. In the 20th century, air power emerged as just such an
advantage. Today, at the outset of the 21st century, we are realizing the
same
sort of advantage through space power."
This broadened sense of the importance of space capabilities as instruments
of
military, political and economic interests has not gone unnoticed, either by
Beijing or by Brussels. French President Jacques Chirac has previously
stated
that Europe's failure to develop an independent space capability would make
Europe a "vassal" of the United States. Unsurprisingly, France has been one
of
the most vocal backers of Galileo, viewing it as an important step in the
evolution of a separate European defense identity.
China's leadership feels likewise and has made improving space-based
surveillance capabilities, the exploitation of space and acquisition of
related
technologies high priorities. The Pentagon's July report on Chinese military
power phrased it more directly: "Publicly, China opposes the militarization
of
space and seeks to prevent the development of US anti-satellites systems and
space-based missile defenses. Privately, however, China's leaders view
[moves
to militarize space] ... as inevitabilities."
Initially a lot of China's space programs were motivated by political
prestige,
but military dominance of most of its current projects is expected to yield
significant amounts of dual-use technology. China already has a basic
indigenous navigation satellite system called Beidou in place, but its
surveillance capabilities are in effect limited to China and are of
questionable quality.
Next month also sees the launch of China's first manned space mission -
Shenzhou V ("divine vessel") - just the first step in a much larger program.
By
2010 it is predicted that China's space program will be a significant
contributor to its military prowess.
In Beijing's quest to secure a favorable strategic configuration of power it
too has pinpointed space as the "new commanding heights for combat". Central
to
its strategy of a weaker military power (read China) defeating a superior
one
(read the US) is an attack on an enemy's space-based communication and
surveillance systems. With this in mind Beijing is known to be developing
systems that could jam GPS.
China is already of one of the biggest players in the global satellite
launch
industry and has been busily cooperating with a number of countries to
improve
its space capabilities. These include Ukraine, Russia and Brazil, but the
September 18 signing of a deal with the EU for joint cooperation in the
development of Galileo is easily the most significant. Crucially, the
Chinese
government and corporations will be involved in research and development
activities, including satellite launching and radio transmission.
Galileo has obvious market applications for the Chinese, but it is its
military
applications that are the most significant. Despite being initially
developed
as a civilian application, unlike Russia's Glosnass system or America's GPS,
Galileo has a military dimension in its premium Public Regulated Service
(PRS)
capacity, intended for military and government use.
PRS functions on a separate frequency from America's GPS military
frequencies
and, combined with systems capable of disabling GPS, this would give a
Galileo-based nation a strategic advantage in any outbreak of hostilities.
In
the long run China could decide to base some of its military hardware on
Galileo technology. This has also gotten European defense companies very
excited, even though a European arms embargo imposed on China after the
Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 is still in place.
Needless to say, Washington has not been particularly impressed by this
incident of Beijing-Brussels diplomacy. Further worries for Washington were
expressions of interest in Galileo last week by India and Israel. With the
Chinese on board, Galileo now looks set to become a major competitor to GPS
in
the race to dominate space.
Moreover, Beijing's attempts to reach for the heavens next month with the
launch of Shenzhou V have managed to ruffle quite a few feathers, and not
just
in Washington. In reaction to Beijing's ambitions in outer space, the
Japanese
decided to merge their three space agencies into a more focused outfit.
It would appear that despite Washington's best efforts to maintain its
dominance on Earth by its technological advantage in outer space, the
proponents of multipolarity are set to take the battle to the heavens. After
China and the EU formally ink their cooperation deal at the end of next
month,
we can expect to see Galileo and Shenzhou V charting their quiet
trajectories
to create a multipolar world in the starry skies above us.
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